SPORTS ADVISORS
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 19
NBA
Dallas (33-21, 22-32 ATS) at Orlando (37-18, 28-26-1 ATS)
The Mavericks continue their frantic stretch of four games in five nights with a stop at Amway Arena in Orlando for a matchup with the red-hot Magic.
Dallas followed up the All-Star break with a trip to Oklahoma City on Tuesday and fell 99-86 as a 4½-point underdog, but it bounced back and beat Phoenix 107-97at home as a four-point favorite on Wednesday. Now the Mavericks are in Orlando and then return home for a matchup with the Heat on Saturday. Dallas is 17-12 (16-13 ATS) on the road this season, but even though they held the high-scoring Suns to double digits on Wednesday, they’ve had trouble stopping teams, allowing 111.4 points per game over their last five on 50.4 percent shooting.
Orlando has won 11 of its last 14 (8-6 ATS) and crushed Detroit 116-91 on Wednesday, easily cashing as an 11-point home chalk. Dwight Howard was unstoppable with 33 points, 17 rebounds and seven blocked shots. The Magic have increased their productivity lately, averaging 109.6 ppg over their last five, eight more than their season average.
This is the first meeting between these two this season, but Dallas has won five of the last six (3-3 ATS) and seven of the last nine overall (3-6 ATS). Last season, the Mavericks went to Orlando and scored a 105-95 upset last season as 7½-point underdogs and have won and covered in Amway Arena each of the last three seasons. The road team and underdog are a perfect 5-0 ATS in each of the last five matchups.
Even though it easily cashed against Phoenix two nights ago, Dallas has been a disaster at the betting window of late, as it is currently on ATS slides of 7-19 overall, 5-16 after getting a day off, 1-4 on the road, 0-4 as an underdog, 0-11 after a spread-cover and 1-6 against Southeast Division foes. Conversely, Orlando has covered in five of seven as a chalk and four straight after a day off, but from there the Magic are on ATS skids of 5-11 after a spread-cover, 2-5 on Friday and 1-6 against Southwest Division teams.
The Mavericks are on several “over” runs, including 14-6 as road ‘dogs, 13-5 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 on Fridays and 4-0 following a straight-up win. On the opposite end, the Magic are on “under” streaks of 14-6 overall, 39-18 after a day off, 10-1 on Fridays, 12-4 as favorites and 4-1 against the Western Conference.
In this series, the “over” has been the play in eight of the last nine clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Atlanta (34-18, 33-19 ATS) at Phoenix (32-23, 29-26 ATS)
The Hawks continue their West Coast road trip with a stop at US Airways Center in Phoenix for a matchup with the Suns.
Atlanta began its four-game jaunt with a 110-92 win in Los Angeles on Wednesday, cashing as a seven-point favorite against the Clippers. All-Star Al Horford had a stellar performance, going 12-of-15 from the field for 31 points and six rebounds. Even with the win in L.A., the Hawks are only 13-12 on the road this season, but have cashed in 15 of those 25 contests.
Phoenix was in Dallas on Wednesday, losing 107-97 to the Mavericks as a four-point underdog, with Amare Stoudemire putting up 30 points and grabbing 14 rebounds in the losing effort. The 97 points snapped a 13-game streak in which the Suns had reached triple digits and was just the second time they fell short of the century mark in 27 contests. At home, Phoenix puts up 112.7 ppg and shoots 49.6 percent from the floor.
These two met on Jan. 15 in Atlanta with the Hawks pulling out a 102-101 victory, but falling short as 5½-point favorites. The road team has cashed in five of the last seven, and the underdog has grabbed the cash in four of the last five overall.
The Hawks are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a road ‘dog of up to 4 ½-points, but they are on ATS runs of 21-10-1 against Western Conference teams, 8-2 after getting a day off and 4-1 on Fridays. The Suns are on ATS slides of 1-4 at home, 2-6 against the Eastern Conference and 3-7 as favorites, but they have cashed in 11 of 15 on Fridays and six of eight overall.
For Atlanta, the “under” is 14-6-1 in its last 21 as a ‘dog and 10-2-1 after a straight-up win, but the “over” has been the play in three of five on the road and five of six against Pacific Division teams. Phoenix is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 6-0 overall, 13-4 against Southeast Division teams, 12-4-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 6-2 as a home favorite, 4-0 on Fridays and 5-2 as a favorite.
Finally, the “under” is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two, but the “over” has cashed in five of the last six played in the desert.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Boston (34-18, 20-31-1 ATS) at Portland (32-24, 30-25-1 ATS)
One night after pulling off an 87-86 upset win over the rival Lakers, the Celtics return to the court for a matchup against the Trail Blazers inside the Rose Garden.
Boston went to Los Angeles on Thursday night and eked out a one-point win as a 2½-point underdog, with Ray Allen leading the charge with 24 points. The Celtics are three games into their five-game Western Conference road trip, but they’re still on slides of 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall, and 3-7 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this season.
Portland has been off since Tuesday when it beat the Clippers 109-87, cashing as a 7½-point favorite. Martell Webster put up 28 points to lead the Blazers, and All-Star guard Brandon Roy had just four points in 15 minutes of action as he eases his way back into the lineup after missing 15 consecutive games with a strained hamstring.
The Celtics have dominated this series, winning eight of the last nine and cashing in eight of the last 10. Back on Jan. 22 in Boston, the Celtics prevailed 98-95 in overtime, but came nowhere near covering the 10½-point spread as the road team improved to 13-6 ATS in the last 19 series clashes. Last season in Portland, the Blazers got their first win over the Celtics since 2004 with a 91-86 upset as a 6½-point home pup.
Boston is on ATS slides of 2-9-1 against Western Conference teams, 0-4 on Fridays and 1-4 on the second night of a back-to-back. Portland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home against teams with winning road marks, but it is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 Friday games and 4-0 in its last four against Eastern Conference teams.
The Celtics have topped the total in six of nine against teams with a winning record and four straight against Northwest Division squads, but stayed “under” the number in five straight overall and five straight against Western Conference teams. The Blazers have stayed below the posted number in four of five at home, but gone “over” the number in six of seven on Fridays and five of seven against teams with a winning record.
In this series, the “over” has been the play in six of the last nine overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Old Dominion (21-7, 10-14 ATS) at Northern Iowa (23-3, 16-9 ATS)
Bracket Buster weekend tips off with an intriguing battle at the McLeod Center in Cedar Falls, Iowa, where the Panthers host Old Dominion in a matchup of two of the nation’s top defensive squads.
The Monarchs carry a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS) into this contest, having knocked off Towson 78-67 on Tuesday, falling way short as a 23-point home favorite. Old Dominion is tied with Northeastern atop the Colonial Athletic Association standings at 13-3, and it is 17-4 in its last 21 contests, a surge that began with a stunning 61-57 victory at then-No. 11 Georgetown as a nine-point underdog.
Playing without 7-foot center Jordan Eglseder, who is serving a three-game team-imposed suspension, Northern Iowa had little trouble with Creighton on Tuesday, cruising 70-52 as an 8½-point home favorite. At 14-2 in conference play, the Panthers hold a three-game lead in the Horizon League standings. They’re also 9-1 in non-conference action this season (6-3 ATS in lined games).
Despite their victory at Georgetown back in December, the Monarchs are just 7-7 SU and 5-8 ATS away from home this year, where they average 64 points per game but give up just 59.1 ppg. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa is a perfect 12-0 at the McLeod Center (8-4 ATS), outscoring visitors by 12.5 ppg (65.6-53.1).
Both teams thrive on defense, as the Panthers are second in the nation in allowing 55.1 ppg, one spot ahead of Old Dominion, which surrenders 55.8 ppg.
Old Dominion faced Liberty in a Bracket Buster game last year and rolled 80-56 as a nine-point home chalk, improving to 4-0 Bracket Buster contests the last four years (3-1 ATS). Northern Iowa has lost three straight Bracket Busters, including last year’s 81-75 setback at Siena. However, the Panthers cashed as a seven-point road underdog against Siena, ending an 0-3 ATS slide in this made-for-TV event.
Other than their recent success in Bracket Buster contests, the Monarchs are in ATS slumps of 2-6 in non-conference play, 1-4 on Friday, 1-5 after a SU win and 2-6 against winning teams. The Panthers are on pointspread surges of 14-6 overall, 8-3 at home, 4-0 in non-league outings and 21-8 versus winning teams, but they’ve failed to cover in four of their last five after both a SU and ATS win.
These defensive-minded squads are both on a series of low-scoring streaks. For Old Dominion, the “under” is on runs of 21-9 overall, 19-7 on the road, 4-0 in non-conference contests, 6-1 on Friday, 16-6 after a SU win and 5-1 after a non-cover. Northern Iowa carries “under” trends of 19-7 overall, 6-0 at home, 4-1 in non-conference action, 8-2 on Friday, 21-8 after a SU win and 6-1 following a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
